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中国中高收入阶段的对外开放

2018-02-11 14:23 亚洲开发银行

摘要:根据世界银行的划分,中国现已迈入中高收入国家行列。回顾中国的经济发展历史,开放政策对拉动经济增长起到了至关重要的作用。没有市场化的对外开放政策,中国就不会有过去三十年来引人注目的经济表现。

Opening up in the upper middle-income stage

原文标题:Opening up in the upper middle-income stage

中文摘要:亚洲开发银行发表中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所高级研究员Zhang Bin一文《中国中高收入阶段的对外开放》。作者在文中表示,经过三十多年的高速经济增长,中国已进入中高收入阶段。根据世界银行的划分,中国现已迈入中高收入国家行列。回顾中国的经济发展历史,开放政策对拉动经济增长起到了至关重要的作用。没有市场化的对外开放政策,中国就不会有过去三十年来引人注目的经济表现。毫无疑问,中国的对外开放政策有很多好处。中国是应该继续坚持这些政策,还是应根据新的环境调整政策呢?本文认为,中国未来的对外开放政策有以下发展方向:1、接受和提倡知识产权、劳动者权益和环境保护;2、鼓励对现代服务业的外国直接投资(FDI);3、放宽海外直接投资(ODI)限制;4、帮助企业克服海外投资的市场失灵问题;5、向灵活的汇率制度过渡,并逐步开放资本账户。(编译:秦川、罗婧婧)

原文:    

After rapid economic growth lasting more than 30 years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has stepped into the upper middle-income stage.

GDP per capita reached $6,416 (constant 2010 dollars) in 2015, equivalent to $13,400 in international dollars under purchasing power parity (constant 2011 international dollars). According to the World Bank’s classifications, the PRC is now an upper middle-income country.

Looking back at the history of economic development, opening-up policies have played a vital role in stimulating economic growth. It is fair to say that without market-oriented opening-up policies, the eye-catching economic performance of the past 30 years would not have been possible.

Without a doubt, there have been many advantages to the PRC’s opening-up policies. However, the question is whether the PRC should stick with these policies or instead reorient its policies according to the new environment – and, if so, how?

Frontier countries, successful and failed catchups catchups

International experiences may provide some lessons for the PRC. In new research, we analyze a sample of countries in three groups: frontier countries, successful catchups, and failed catchups.

Since 1987, the World Bank has classified countries into four groups according to their gross national income per capita: low-income, lower middle-income, upper middle-income, and high-income. Based on these classifications, we focus on the following three types of countries:

Frontier countries, which comprise countries that have been in the high-income group for at least the past 10 years.

Successful catchups, which comprise countries that have managed to climb from upper middle-income to high income and have never fallen back to the upper middle-income stage.

Failed catchups, which comprise countries that have been stuck in the upper middle-income stage for at least 12 years and have failed to join the group of high-income countries.

The reason for choosing 12 years as the threshold for “success” or “failure” is that the mean and median durations for successful catchups transitioning from upper middle-income to high-income are 12.7 years and 12 years, respectively.

We compare these three groups from the perspectives of foreign trade, investment, exchange rate regime, and capital account openness to analyze the role of opening-up polices in promoting catching-up and gain some implications for the PRC’s future.

When making comparisons, we care on the one hand about “absolute” values, such as the cross-country differences of trade/GDP. However, a related problem is that since different countries appear in our comparison sample at different years, there may be noise introduced by time fixed-effects, e.g., the financial crisis of 2008.

To exclude such time fixed-effects, we on the other hand also report the marginal change relative the initial value in the base year, like increase in trade/GDP, with the reference year being first year for the respective country in the sample.

Policy implications

The main conclusions are that successful catchups keep improving in terms of foreign trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), overseas direct investment (ODI), and capital account management, etc., effectively narrowing the gap with frontier countries. Meanwhile, failed catchups remain at the bottom of opening-up, and even remain stagnant in some cases.

Opening up, from the aspects of foreign trade, FDI, and ODI encourages market competition, improves the efficiency of resource allocation globally, and boosts industrial upgrading and structural change. A proper exchange rate regime and cautious capital account opening are key to ensuring macroeconomic stability.

Based on these findings, we consider that the future direction of the PRC’s opening-up policies is to:

1.Accept and advocate the protection of intellectual property, labor rights, and the environment.

2.Encourage FDI in modern services sectors.

3.Ease the restrictions on ODI.

4.Help enterprises overcome market failures when investing overseas.

5.Transition to a flexible exchange rate regime and gradually open up the capital account.

责任编辑:罗婧婧

相关阅读 中国经济 对外开放 亚洲国家/高收入

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