2017-03-16 09:09 彼得森国际经济研究所
原文标题：Will the Proposed US Border Tax Provoke WTO Retaliation from Trading Partners?
中文摘要：彼得森国际经济研究所专家Chad P. Bown在《美国的边境税提案会激起WTO贸易伙伴的报复吗？》一文中表示，美国边境税调整蓝图的一个主要经济问题在于它可能以违反国际贸易规则的方式降低美国的进口，促进出口。由于美国经济规模大，边境税带来的贸易畸形发展将损害美国贸易伙伴的利益，从而导致他们立即实施报复。世界贸易组织（WTO）确立的框架有助于理解贸易伙伴如何针对美国税收改革进行政策应对。贸易伙伴可能对美国出口商施加大规模报复手段。任何持久的美国税收制度改革都要求对该政策的国际影响进行坦率的公开讨论和公正的实证评估。作者指出，最好利用美国对国际交往与合作的强有力承诺来处理该问题。（编译：刘小云）
A major economic concern with the border tax adjustment blueprint, which House Speaker Paul Ryan and House Ways and Means Committee chair Kevin Brady support, is its potential to reduce US imports and promote US exports in a way that could violate international trade rules. Because of the size of the US economy, the trade distortions resulting from the tax would punish US trading partners, putting pressure on them to retaliate immediately. World Trade Organization (WTO) rules establish a framework for understanding how trading partners' policy response to a US tax reform would proceed. The potential retaliatory costs to US exporters associated with elements of the Ryan-Brady blueprint could be large. If the reform is found to violate WTO rules by restricting US imports, trading partners could be authorized to retaliate by an estimated $220 billion annually. If the new US tax is found to implicitly subsidize exports, partners could be authorized to retaliate by an additional $165 billion annually. The United States would face some of this combined $385 billion in retaliation almost immediately upon implementing the tax, through the imposition of countervailing duties by trading partners. Any durable overhaul of the US tax system requires a frank airing and honest empirical assessment of the international implications of the policy. It is best to tackle the issue with a strong US commitment to international engagement and cooperation with trading partners.