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2016年中国对外投资创纪录:不要反应过度

2017-01-16 09:37 美国企业公共政策研究所

摘要:2016年,中国在世界各地的投资增长近50%,达到约1750亿美元,自2012年以来已经翻了一番。中国在全球投资激增主要是因为对美投资,2016年对美投资超过500亿美元。民营企业收购是其核心。2016年,能源市场意外领先,在所有行业中,吸引的中国投资最多,背后的原因是技术并购(无论成功与否)大增。

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原文标题:Record Chinese Outward Investment in 2016: Don’t Overreact

中文摘要:美国企业公共政策研究所学者Derek Scissors在《2016年中国对外投资创纪录:不要反应过度》一文中说,2016年,中国在世界各地的投资增长近50%,达到约1750亿美元,自2012年以来已经翻了一番。中国在全球投资激增主要是因为对美投资,2016年对美投资超过500亿美元。民营企业收购是其核心。2016年,能源市场意外领先,在所有行业中,吸引的中国投资最多,背后的原因是技术并购(无论成功与否)大增。2017年将不及去年。总投资额可能会下降,也可能不会,但涉及到的国家、行业和中国企业数量可能会下降。作者建议,美国应该根据中国和中国投资者的行为制定政策,同时遵守互惠主义和美国法律,而不要盯着有名无实的公有制不放。(编译:刘小云)

原文:

Key Points

China’s investment around the world grew almost 50 percent in 2016 to approximately $175 billion. It has now doubled in size since 2012.

China’s global spending surge is due primarily to investment in the United States, which exceeded $50 billion in 2016. Acquisitions by private enterprises are at its heart.

Energy made a surprise comeback in 2016, leading all sectors in drawing Chinese funds. However, a bigger story was a jump in attempted and successful technology acquisitions.

This year will be weaker than last. Total investment may or may not fall, but diversification by country, sector, and the Chinese companies is likely to decline.

American policy should be based on actions by China and Chinese investors, reciprocity and obeying US law, respectively,

rather than nominal state ownership.

Introduction

Chinese outward investment set records in 2016, but it is hard to be confident about the numbers. The amount of money leaving the People’s Republic of China (PRC), sometimes illegally, is so large that picking out genuine investment has become a challenge. It can suit Beijing to label capital flight as “investment.” Independent observers occasionally include acquisitions both in the year announced and again in the following year when completed.

The China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT), from the American Enterprise Institute and The Heritage Foundation, is vetted, with each transaction detailed in the only fully public record of the PRC’s investment and construction.1 Vetting yields an initial estimate of $170 billion in Chinese outward, non-bond investment last year, a 46 percent increase over 2015. There was explosive growth from the start, and worries about a weakening renminbi helped support a quick pace until December, when Chinese authorities became belatedly alarmed over money leaving the country.

Record-breaking totals mean records for sectors and countries. Energy investment, including gas and alternative energy, intensified over the course of the year, with more than $30 billion ultimately allocated. While this is a return to the past, technology acquisitions touching $25 billion constitute a sharp change. Another new development was nearly $20 billion invested in tourism, primarily hotels.

By country, the previous high for Chinese spending in the US was nearly tripled to over $50 billion (initial estimate) in 2016, by far the top national figure. The US accounted for 30 percent of the PRC’s outward investment last year. Three other countries—Britain, Brazil, and Germany—surpassed $10 billion, which would have been extraordinary as recently as 2012.

Construction activity is often conflated with investment, but there are more $100 million construction contracts than $100 million investments since 2005. More than 50 countries inked contracts with Chinese engineering firms in 2016 alone. Transport—rail, roads, ports, and airports—saw the most activity. Egypt, Bangladesh, and Malaysia were most popular construction partners in 2016.

The future looks calmer. If completed, the massive Syngenta acquisition could make 2017 appear busier than last year, but the number of deals and participating firms will likely fall. The 2016 bonanza is causing the PRC and its partners to rethink. In addition to China’s deteriorating balance of payments, the investment spree is almost entirely mergers and acquisitions, with greenfield spending very weak. In light of Beijing’s protection of its own assets, many countries have become wary of these acquisitions.2 The US in particular has cause to consider its policies toward Chinese investment, but decisions should be made on Chinese behavior, not labels.

Record Chinese Outward Investment in 2016.pdf

 

责任编辑:刘小云

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