2016-12-08 10:31 英国海外发展研究所
原文标题:Post-election rises in US interest rates: rate rises could hurt Africa's access to finance
Post-US election, the increase in longer-dated US bond yields partly reflect expected fiscal easing that could increase US debt over the medium- tolonger-term.
Increased fiscal spending and the knock-on impact on US growth andinflation could result in faster policy rate rises by the Federal Open MarketCommittee, leading to global volatility.
Sustained interest rate rises could affect the cost of finance forsub-Saharan African economies already vulnerable as a result of depreciating currenciesand slowing growth.
Potential US debt rises amid fiscal easing
In the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, one notable financialmarket impact has been the increase in longer-dated US bond yields. Thecatalyst has been the expectation of president-elect Trump’s fiscal stimulus,and the expectation that his investment spending plans will boost US growthand, potentially, US debt. This has had global knock-on effects: the corollaryof these higher interest rates has resulted in an approximate $1 trilliondecline in global bond prices given the links between US and global bondyields.
Adetailed Trump policy agenda remains unclear. However, the expected fiscaleasing, including in the form of tax cuts, is estimated to increase US federaldebt by $7.2 trillion over the next decade. If carried out, the magnitude offiscal easing could lead to further increases in long-term US interest ratesgiven expectations that it will increase the debt burden in the US. To theextent that the policies are seen as pro-growth, they could be inflationarytoo: a sustained rise in US interest rates will have negative impacts fordeveloping and emerging economies’ borrowing costs.
Possible faster-pace of US policy rate rises
Financial markets are currently pricing a near-100% probability of anincrease in the federal funds rate (currently at 0.25%–0.50%) at the muchanticipated 13-14 December US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.Unsurprisingly, attention has now turned to how US interest rate rises willevolve in the longer-term given the likely prospect of further increases by theFOMC after a December rate rise. If the FOMC delayed raising interest ratesamid potential fiscal easing, it would face the risk of abruptly increasing interestrates later on to keep the economy from overshooting its employment andinflation objectives.
Some of the rise in US interest rates will depend on the degree to whichTrump’s planned fiscal easing translates into higher growth. There could alsobe institutional risk when it comes to US policy rates: Federal Reserve chairYellen has stated she will remain in post until her term ends in February 2018.A new Fed chair who is more inward-looking and aligned with some ofpresident-elect Trump’s other policies, may lead to global developments (andglobal financial volatility stemming from the FOMC’s actions) having lessbearing on the Fed’s deliberations. The result could be an even furtherincrease in global volatility.
Higher US yields could hurt Africa’s access to finance
If sustained, US rate rises could have multiple channels of transmissionto sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies – and contribute to increased financingcosts. Open economies’ long-term rates are often influenced by global riskpremia, which could rise with the re-allocation of capital away from emergingand developing economies to the US. A steeper US yield curve slope, or a risein long-term versus short-term rates, therefore could imply higher longer-termfinancing costs for those developing or emerging economies looking to borrow.In some instances, the US yield curve is a better predictor than emergingeconomies’ own domestic interest rates in influencing economic outcomes.
Growth trajectories have diverged within SSA. However, creditworthinesscould be tested for those economies with already slower growth as a result ofweak commodity prices and reduced government revenues, which could be furtherexacerbated by potential rate increases. Particularly vulnerable are SSAcountries with depreciating currencies, compounding the cost of servicingsovereign and corporate dollar debt as US interest rates rise. Examples of thisexposure can be seen in Nigeria, Zambia and Mozambique: their currencies havedepreciated by 73%, 54% and 40% respectively, relative to end-2015. Inparticular, Nigeria’s naira was partly driven down by its de-pegging againstthe US dollar earlier this year.
SSA’s issuing of debt has become a key financing strategy in the recentpast as countries have looked to global financial markets to facilitatedomestic investment. Higher US interest rates could narrow the scope for thisfinancing, including for infrastructure and to further develop domestic sovereignbond markets. Interest rates have already started to clip higher in the largerSSA economies with more developed financial sectors, such as Kenya’s. Ifsustained, increases in US interest rates could reduce the ability of SSAgovernments to effectively raise this level of finance, at a time when creditinflows and economic growth are already slowing.
Post-election rises in US interest rates.pdf