2016-12-06 16:57 布勒哲尔国际经济研究所
原文标题:What impact does the ECB's quantitative easing policy have on bank profitability
中文摘要:布勒哲尔国际经济研究所专家Maria Demertzis和Guntram B. Wolf在《欧洲央行量化宽松政策对银行盈利的影响》一文中表示,量化宽松政策(QE)实施后,银行新贷款存贷利差已显著下降。从银行实际利润来看,净利息收入已保持稳定。银行盈利的增加还源于对损毁资产的清理工作。(编译:史春姣)
Quantitative easing (QE) affects banks’ profitability in three mainways.
First, as QE drives up bond prices, banks holding such bonds see theirbalance sheets strengthened.
Second, QE reduces long-term yields and thereby reduces term spreads.With this, the lending-deposit ratio spread falls, making it harder for banksto generate net interest income on new loans.
Last, QE improves the economic outlook, which should help banks exposedto the economy find new lending opportunities and should reduce problems withnon-performing loans. The effects of QE on bank profitability are therefore notone directional. If anything, the immediate effect should be positive.
Banks themselves have been quite negative about the impact of QE ontheir net interest income, but they have also acknowledged its positive impacton capital gains (ECB Bank Lending Survey).
Lending-deposit spreads for new lending have fallen significantly.Looking at actual bank profits, net interest income has been stable. Moreover,bank profitability has increased mostly as a result of efforts to clean balancesheets of impaired assets (at least until the end of 2015). This is consistent with a reduction in non-performing loans (NPLs), particularly in countrieswhere NPL levels were abnormally high.
Moreover, we show that bank profitability in some countries has been aconcern for many years now, starting well before the QE programme. The maindrivers of low profitability have been non-performing loans, legal risks andother problems unrelated to net interest income, which has remained fairlystable.
Overall, the authors cannot yet see any major bank profitability issuearising out of the ECB’s QE programme.