2016-10-17 11:03 布勒哲尔国际经济研究所
原文标题：Fiscal capacity to support large banks
中文摘要：布勒哲尔国际经济研究所专家PIA HüTTL和DIRK SCHOENMAKER在《支持大银行的财政能力》一文中评估了重组大型银行的潜在财政成本。基于过去的金融危机，作者预计对单个银行进行资本重组的成本占其总资产的4.5％。在严重危机期间，一个国家可能不得不对其多达三个大型系统性银行进行资本重组。作者假设在系统性危机期间，私人投资者的救助并非一定会发生。作者的实证研究结果表明，美国、中国、日本等大国仍然可以为其大型系统性银行提供可信的财政支持。在欧元区，潜在的财政成本分布不均，占GDP的比例从4%到12%不等。欧元区国家财政支持力度的差异导致了整个银行业联盟融资条件的分歧。为了克服这种分化，作者建议欧洲稳定机制（ESM）被用作一种财政支持，在发生严重系统性危机的情况下，直接在银行业联盟内对系统内重要银行进行资本重组。但这只是最后一招，只有在纾困措施等其他工具已经被最大限度地使用后才能采用。应重新考虑对ESM的管理，以确保其在危机时期能够迅速和明确地应用。（编译：刘小云）
During the global financial crisis and subsequent euro-debt crisis, the fiscal resources of some countries appeared to be insufficient to support their banking systems. These countries needed outside support to stabilise their banking systems and thereby their wider economies.
This Policy Contribution assesses the potential fiscal costs of recapitalising large banks. Based on past financial crises, we estimate that the cost to recapitalise an individual bank amounts to 4.5 percent of its total assets. During a severe crisis, a country might have to recapitalise up to three of its large systemic banks. We assume that bail-in of private investors is not fully possible during a systemic crisis.
Our empirical findings suggest that large countries, such as the United States, China and Japan, can still provide credible fiscal backstops to their large systemic banks. In the euro area, the potential fiscal costs are unevenly distributed and range from 4 to 12 percent of GDP. Differences in the strengths of the fiscal backstops in euro-area countries contribute to divergences in financing conditions across the banking union.
To counter this fragmentation, we propose that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) could be used as a fiscal backstop to recapitalise systemically important banks directly within the banking union, in the case of a severe systemic crisis. But this would be only a last resort, after other tools such as bail-in have been used to the maximum extent possible. The governance of the ESM should be reconsidered, to ensure swift and clear application in times of crisis.