2016-09-19 08:51 布勒哲尔国际经济研究所
原文标题：What are the prerequisites for a euro-area fiscal capacity?
中文摘要：布勒哲尔国际经济研究所专家MARIA DEMERTZIS和GUNTRAM B. WOLFF在《欧元区财政能力的先决条件是什么？》一文中表示，没有财政联盟的货币联盟通常被认为是不完整的。作者提出了三个步骤来加强财政职能集中化，并讨论了每个步骤转向下一个步骤的先决条件。总之，财政一体化是一个信任问题，而信任目前处于低水平。作者认为，第一步应该是完成银行业联盟，并建立一个更加可信的“禁止救助条款(no-bailout clause)”，然后通过增加公共产品投入和在欧盟的投资从第一步迈向第二步。第二步应建立一个再保险框架，以帮助欧元区国家应对大的冲击。最后一步将令大量政府支出转移到中心层面，使得欧元区财政稳定实现完全集中化，从而构成分析基准。为实现这一点，需要降低国家间的切实经济差异，并建立一个恰当的政治联盟。（编译：刘小云）
A monetary union without fiscal union is generally considered to be incomplete. We consider three steps for increasing the centralisation of fiscal functions, and discuss the prerequisites for moving forward at each one. Above all, fiscal integration is a matter of trust, which is currently at a low level.
The first step would be to complete banking union and establish a more credible no-bailout clause. The conditions for addressing the fiscal dimensions of banking union are a denationalisation of the banking policy framework - including as regards exposure to sovereign debt - addressing non-performing loans and legitimising the fiscal backstop.
The second step would move on from the first by adding funds for public goods and investment in the EU. With these, this step would create a re-insurance framework to help euro-area countries absorb large shocks. We consider a review of the EU budget and additional resources as conditions for this scenario. A system of check and balances is important. Last, we consider structural convergence to better deal with shocks as an essential prerequisite for mechanisms to cope with large country-specific shocks.
The last step constitutes our analytical benchmark as it would move substantial government spending to the central level. This would allow euro-area fiscal stabilisation to be fully centralised. To enable this scenario, real economic differences between countries need to be lower, and a proper political union would need to be established, with legitimacy and a level of political integration very different from the situation today.