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了解东盟经济潜力需要知道的12件事

2016-09-09 10:57 亚洲开发银行研究院

摘要:东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)和来自世界各地的领导人,包括美国总统奥巴马和俄罗斯总统普京,齐聚老挝首都万象。本文介绍了了解东盟经济潜力需要知道的12件事。

world leaders gathering for asean here is what you need to know

原文标题:World Leaders Gathering for ASEAN: Here is What You need to Know

中文摘要:亚洲开发银行专家Khalid Koser在《世界多国领导人集聚东盟》一文中表示,东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)和来自世界各地的领导人,包括美国总统奥巴马和俄罗斯总统普京,齐聚老挝首都万象。本文介绍了了解东盟经济潜力需要知道的12件事。具体涉及内容包括:全球经济重心和亚洲经济重心的转移;东盟将创建单一市场和生产基地,即东盟经济共同体;东盟在国内生产总值、劳动力、商品出口额等方面的优势;谨慎的区域经济一体化方式;基础设施建设;东盟面临的挑战;实现真正经济一体化东盟成员国需要进行的法律变更;确保成员国服从性所需要的机制;实现长期发展目标所需要引入的结构改革等。(编译:罗婧婧)

原文:

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and leaders from around the world, including United States President Barack Obama, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and others, are gathering in Vientiane, Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Here are 12 things to know about the economic potential of ASEAN.

The center of global economic gravity is shifting toward Asia. Within Asia, it is shifting toward the two giant economies of the People’s Republic of China and India. Their emergence as economic superpowers suggests that “economic size” bestows significant advantage in accelerating growth and fostering development.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is in the process of creating a single market and production base, called the ASEAN Economic Community, which will allow the free flow of goods, services, investments, and skilled labor, and the freer movement of capital across the region.

If ASEAN were one economy, it would be seventh largest in the world with a combined gross domestic product of $2.4 trillion in 2013. It could be fourth largest by 2050 if growth trends continue.

With over 600 million people, ASEAN's potential market is larger than the European Union or North America. Next to the People's Republic of China and India, ASEAN has the world's third largest labor force that remains relatively young.

ASEAN is one of the most open economic regions in the world, with total merchandise exports of over $1.2 trillion - nearly 54% of total ASEAN GDP and 7% of global exports.

ASEAN is taking a more cautious approach to regional economic integration than Europe. In Asia, there is currently no serious consideration of a single currency.

The ASEAN Economic Community is founded on four basic initiatives: creating a single market and production base; increasing competitiveness; promoting equitable economic development; and further integrating ASEAN with the global economy.

ASEAN’s physical infrastructure is critical to the ASEAN Economic Community’s goal of establishing a single market and production base. Cross-border roads, power lines, railways and maritime development will help propel the community forward. This will boost existing and new value chains or production networks.

One of the challenges to the ASEAN Economic Community is bridging the perceived "development divide" between the older and economically more advanced members - Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, known as the ASEAN-6, and the four newer members - Cambodia (1999), Lao People's Democratic Republic (1997), Myanmar (1997), and Viet Nam (1995).

Although the ASEAN Economic Community formally began at the end of December 2015, genuine economic integration remains some way off, as changes are needed to domestic laws and in some cases to constitutions.

The flexibility that characterizes ASEAN cooperation, the celebrated "ASEAN way," may hand member states a convenient pretext for noncompliance, according to one ADB report. How to enforce the accords remains an issue. Currently, the economic integration commitments lack sufficient mechanisms to ensure compliance.

ASEAN needs a plan beyond the ASEAN Economic Community to achieve the long-term development aspirations of its 10 member countries, according to an ADB study. This includes introducing structural reforms nationally and taking bold actions regionally to further deepen economic integration.

责任编辑:罗浩

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