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“特朗普总统”对印度为何不会是个坏消息

2016-08-04 09:01 印度观察家研究基金会

摘要:美国知名民调预测机构“538”(FiveThirtyEight)预测,特朗普有50.1%的几率赢得美国大选。是时候停止怀疑并评估特朗普当选总统对印度和世界的意义了。当美国应对中国、伊斯兰和俄罗斯时,特朗普的政策对印度是有利的。

why ‘president trump’ wouldn’t be bad news for india

原文标题:Why ‘President Trump’ wouldn’t be bad news for India

中文摘要:印度观察家研究基金会专家MANOJ JOSHI在《“特朗普总统”对印度为何不会是个坏消息》一文中表示,美国知名民调预测机构“538”(FiveThirtyEight)预测,特朗普有50.1%的几率赢得美国大选。是时候停止怀疑并评估特朗普当选总统对印度和世界的意义了。印度并不在特朗普摩尼教世界观的考虑中,这很好。印度对美国的影响程度不及俄罗斯、欧洲和中国。当美国应对中国、伊斯兰和俄罗斯时,特朗普的政策对印度是有利的。自冷战以来的每一位美国总统都在致力于维护美国的全球霸主地位。特朗普和他的支持者认为,他们苛刻的议程是拯救美国和世界的必备良药,并将在这一过程中保持美国的霸主地位。(编译:罗婧婧)

原文:

FiveThirtyEight, America’s best-known poll forecaster, has predicted that Donald Trump has a 50.1 percent chance of winning the US presidency.

It is time to suspend disbelief and assess just what a Trump presidency could mean for the world and India.

Trump has divided the US electorate down the middle. He has been attacked for his erratic ways, racism, and questionable business practices.

Yet, he bested the powerful Republican establishment to become the party nominee for the presidential elections.

What forces have carried Donald Trump to this stage? Win or lose, they will be around in the US over the coming decade.

Most noticeable is the feeling among large sections of the people that the American establishment has colluded with the rich in other countries to impoverish the average American.

This has led to a chronic, growing inequality in the US and an exacerbation of the race issue.

Globally, instead of benefiting from the rise of East Asia, the US has spent a fortune in wars in the Middle East, and is now witnessing the destabilisation of its key ally, Europe, by Islamist terrorism and unchecked migration.

Meanwhile China expands its military and economic capacity and could challenge the US, first in East Asia, and then possibly the world.

Assuming Trump does not quite live out his persona as POTUS, and that he is a person of reasonable intelligence, it is possible to get a reasonable idea of how he will be different.

A lot will depend on the outcome of the Congressional elections, because while the Congress cannot make policy, it has the capacity to obstruct a President’s agenda just as has happened in the case of Barack Obama.

Perhaps the most significant shift will be in the way the US engages the world.

The US played a crucial role in setting up the UN, the international monetary and trading system, non-proliferation, arms control, and a host of international agreements that bind the world.

It shaped a global environment in which most states believed that following the rules was in their self-interest, and in turn the US paid the primary cost of policing that system.

Now, Trump wants out. Many Americans have spoken of free-loading allies, but for Trump it has been an obsession.

His world will be much more transactional, where say in the area of security, Europe, Japan and the Middle Eastern allies of the US will be asked to cough up their contributions.

His words and deeds suggest that he will seek to restore the geo-political balance which has been skewed by the Western policy on Ukraine, which has sent Russia into the arms of China.

He will take a tough stand on Islamism, with implications for the Gulf monarchies.

On the matter of trade, the horse has already bolted. Trump has attacked Mexico and NAFTA, but in recent year many US analysts have averred that the US gave China a free ride in the trading system and by cleverly under-valuing its currency, Beijing sucked away US industries and jobs.

There is little they can do to reverse this; China has unstoppable momentum.

Trump is committed to opposing the brahmastra of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but he is bound to a tough-line on China on trade and currency issues.

India does not figure in Trump’s Manichean worldview ― which is for the good. India simply does not impact on the US to the extent that Russia, Europe or China do.

IPR and job outsourcing issues are there. But they are minor in the larger scale of problems that the US must tackle to reduce its debt, reform its tax laws, rewrite trading agreements and get on to the path of growth which also benefits the average person.

Whether it is in tackling China, Islamism, or the Russian rift, Trump’s policies will benefit India.

However, New Delhi will also be on that transactional framework where it will be asked what it has on offer to merit the US’s friendship ― and we cannot rule out an American decision to knock heads on issues like Kashmir.

Also read: Donald Trump and Indian jobs | India could win with Trump’s foreign policy

Every US President since the Cold War have been committed to maintaining the American global hegemony.

Trump and his supporters believe that their harsh agenda is the necessary medicine for the US and the world, to save them ― and in the process retain America’s number one status.

责任编辑:刘小云

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